To be clear, I don’t believe there is a recession coming. And even if there is, it won’t be anything like what we saw during 2008 and 2009. However some are arguing that trading conditions are are likely to become a bit trickier in 2017. Again, that remains to be seen. We’re still only in 2016 of course.
But something good did come from the Great Recession at the end of the last decade, and that was a glazing industry with renewed agility, strength and diversification capabilities that it perhaps thought it did not have before. Out of those recession years we saw a great number of established manufacturers become leaner and launch whole new suites of products to create new revenue streams.
The conservatory became the glazed extension. Composite doors took off like no other product before it. Bi-folding doors became a must-have for home owners up and down the UK. Lantern roofs exploded to start to transform the flat roof market. All of these products have their successes rooted in the recession years at the end of the last decade. Perhaps it’s time to get back into the same mindset, whatever happens in 2017 and the years to come.
Positive growth still forecast
It is important to remember that every single major financial institution that predicted a UK recession has now gone back on those pre-EU Referendum predictions, and most are now predicting at least some levels of growth in each quarter of 2017, even if they are only slight. This is still better than a recession. If UK GDP is growing, then there is opportunity.
It’s also worth remembering that the most recent set of glazing industry reports state that over the next three to five years the sector is going to experience steady growth. That of course could change during that time, but I think it would take a serious market correction to make that happen.
So, the outlook looks steady. Better than downhill. Still, challenges to our sector will come our way in the coming couple of years. It is likely we will see peaks and troughs in sales throughout the year. The media will make sure of that. But this is why I am saying that we need to get in to the mindset that we were in during the 2008-2009 recession.
It was a time where each and every company in our industry had to become a lot more agile, a lot more proactive and a lot more creative to ensure that their business not only survived but grew. Some were able to do this, some just managed to keep their heads above water. Some in the end went to the wall. Probably took some deadwood with it.
Time to get agile
This moment in time feels like an appropriate time to get back into the mindset we all adopted during the last recession. Again, not that I believe there is one coming, but because that state of mind will not only prevent ourselves from going back into a stagnant phase, but to also make the most of the new opportunities our industry finds itself presented with.
Despite the doom and gloomers out there, a lot of excellent opportunities of growth remain in the UK glazing market right now; lantern roof, solid roof conversions, residential aluminium windows and doors, hybrid windows and doors, timber alternative PVCu. I could go on. All these are new and emerging markets driven by consumer demand, which is a key factor in all of this. These are areas that remain good positive areas to target because home owners actively want them. Remember, there is no middle ground any more, and plain white windows won’t do the trick any more.
So it’s time to get creative again as an industry. Perhaps some company re-branding is due. A review of your portfolio of products is required. More forward thinking marketing on new platforms will help boost exposure. Now is very much the perfect time to get proactive and the very worst time to let all these new and, crucially, profitable opportunities go to waste.
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I think many, if not most firms are still running under an alternative recessionary mindset with stagnant wages and recessionary staffing levels despite the level of business accelerating away over the last 18 months. The brexcuses price hikes are just exacerbating that too. I don’t think this will change in the coming year for many of the smaller firms, despite things shifting along nicely. The management crabs have been squeezing and pincing for so long, their claws seemed to have seized up.